Niels Huijbregsen
Was Widespread COVID-19 Testing a Good Idea?
Imagine you test positive for a test that predicts that you have a rare disease with 99% accuracy. You would worry right? You might think this means you almost certainly have the disease, with only a 1% chance of not having the disease. This seems very intuitive, but is actually completely wrong. If the disease is rare, a positive result from this remarkably sensitive test can still mean that you are almost certainly healthy. This feels impossible at first. How can a test that almost never misses a true case be wrong most of the time when it gives a positive result?
Why negative feedback is better for improvement (or is it?)
In the years after World War II, a group of Israeli Air Force instructors believed they had discovered a hard truth about human nature. They noticed something strange during flight training. When a pilot executed a perfect maneuver and received praise, the next attempt was usually worse. But when a pilot performed badly and was harshly criticized, his next flight tended to improve. It felt like solid evidence. Praise seemed to weaken people, while criticism toughened them up. Many instructors became convinced that tough feedback was the only way to improve performance. The conclusion was neat, logical, and entirely wrong.
Will Machine Learning Replace Econometrics?
Econometrics used to be the gold standard for making sense of economic data, relying on carefully structured models, causal inference, and transparent relationships. But machine learning doesn’t play by those rules. It skips the theory, digests mountains of data, and delivers startlingly accurate predictions. As industries crave speed and scale, one question is becoming harder to ignore: do we still need econometrics at all?
Are You the Only You in an Infinite Universe?
Imagine walking down the street, thinking that no one else in the universe is exactly like you. Your experiences, your thoughts, and even your random quirks make you feel special. But what if, somewhere out there, another version of you exists—living an identical life, making the same choices, and even reading this very article right now? While this may sound like science fiction, if the universe is truly infinite, then probability suggests it could be reality. And not just once, but an infinite number of times.