Categorie: Econometrie

The medical test paradox

The medical test paradox

Testing has been quite a significant subject during this pandemic. Around 30.000 people a day are being tested in the Netherlands alone, so it is quite important that such a test can accurately predict whether someone actually has the disease. However, an accurate test is not always as predictive as you would like. This phenomenon is also known as “the medical test paradox”.   Bayes’ rule The medical test paradox is an example that is quite often used to introduce Bayes’ rule. In Bayesian statistics, the interpretation of probability is expressed as a degree of […]

07 januari • Door Sam Ansari Tijd om te lezen Estimated reading time: 7 minuten

Reversion to mediocrity

Nowadays, research in many fields involves statistics. Whether it comes down to a government’s decisions on measures fighting a pandemic or the Red Bull formula 1 racing team deciding on whether Verstappen should swap tires in the next lap, it sounds like a good idea to back the decision with statistics. For a fair amount of time, appliance of statistics has seemed one of the most irrefutable means of proving a claim or, in other situations, coming to the right conclusion. In their essence, statistics seem, when employed properly, to be telling the story as-is, […]

15 december • Door Pieter Dilg Tijd om te lezen Estimated reading time: 5 minuten
Lotka-Volterra

A look at an economic application of the Lotka-Volterra equations

The Lotka-Volterra model is mostly referred to as the predator-prey model. This model is used to describe lots of commonly encountered ecological processes. One of the more famous ones is the rabbit and the fox model. This is a cyclical relation between the amount of rabbits and foxes. More on this will be explained further on. In economics, we also encounter lots of cycles and that is why another application of this model could find a place in economics. Therefore, the Lotka-Volterra equations are potentially very useful in such an economic setting and may be […]

10 november • Door David Anthonio Tijd om te lezen Estimated reading time: 6 minuten
Machine learning in financial markets

Machine learning in financial markets

Data has become extremely valuable to many companies in the world. Huge data centres are being built to cope with the vast amount of it that is being transmitted every single second. Especially with the rise of AI and specifically machine learning, this information can be used to build models that can predict future outcomes with phenomenal accuracy. These techniques could also be very powerful when we want to predict stock markets. However, stock prices can be very volatile and investor sentiments can influence these prices as well, so how accurate are these machine learning […]

27 oktober • Door Sam Ansari Tijd om te lezen Estimated reading time: 8 minuten

Do storks deliver babies?

When you were still a little child, you were probably told that all babies were delivered by storks. Later, when you got older, you found out that this idea is total nonsense. However, imagine that you are still in doubt whether this idea is true, and to discover the truth, you want to use your statistical abilities. As it turns out, from a statistical point of view it seems that storks really do deliver babies. Or does it not? Robert Matthews In the year 2000, Robert Matthews, professor at Aston University, published an academic paper […]

15 oktober • Door Stan Koobs Tijd om te lezen Estimated reading time: 3 minuten
Stock split

Four frequently asked questions about Apple’s and Tesla’s stock split

Every now and then, in the news you hear a new term. For me that was the term ‘stock split’. Apple and Tesla both went through a so-called stock split last month, but what does this mean for the shareholders? And what about the companies themselves? In this short article I will try to answer most of these questions and provide some other relevant information about stock splits in general. What is an example of a stock split and how does it work? So first I will try to make the concept of a stock […]

01 oktober • Door David Anthonio Tijd om te lezen Estimated reading time: 5 minuten
Friendship

The secret recipe for making friends

It is the spring of 2021. A vaccine for Covid-19 has been distributed and life is getting back to normal. The weather is improving and it is the so-called first ‘Rokjesdag’. The perfect day to hit the terrace with your friends. You are enjoying a drink with your friends, while reminiscing all the good times you had together before the pandemic. You mention that it is quite remarkable that even though you could not really spend time together, you still kept in contact with each other. One of your friends responds that it is only […]

22 september • Door Jochem Hak Tijd om te lezen Estimated reading time: 6 minuten
Motivated reasoning causes a lot of biases and smart econometricians might even be more susceptible to this.

Why smart econometricians say stupid things

A lot of different opinions circulate through society about the ongoing corona crisis. One thinks that the government imposed ridiculous measures, another believes that the government is being far too lenient and maybe you feel that it is fine this way. Even among researchers, there is still a lot of dissension. Where does this radical difference of opinions come from if everyone has the same data? Motivated reasoning Obviously, fighting the coronavirus is a complex problem and therefore, there is not one simple solution. However, this polarity among experts in the field can partially be […]

01 september • Door Stan Koobs Tijd om te lezen Estimated reading time: 6 minuten

Mr. Pity vs. Nature

Mr. Pity was a very, very unlucky man. As a kid he had once accidentally stepped on a butterfly in the forest. But this was no ordinary butterfly! It was the most beautiful butterfly Nature had ever produced. Out of revenge, Nature cursed young Mr. Pity: “Whatever you do, I’ll try to make your life as miserable as possible!” Now, Nature’s curse became evident every time Mr. Pity faces a decision in which uncertainty is involved. For Nature is the one that pulls the strings in all probabilistic situations. Thankfully, however, the Creator had been […]

02 juli • Door admin Tijd om te lezen Estimated reading time: 9 minuten

Italië en haar roze bril

De afgelopen weken staan het Coronavirus en Italië centraal in het nieuws. Hierbij gaat het onder andere over de houdbaarheid van de schuld van Italië. Nederland neemt hier een harde houding in aan. In het artikel “Italiaans begrotingsbeleid is struisvogelpolitiek” van de ESB (John Lorié en Theo Smid, 2020) wordt een aantal scenario’s geanalyseerd. Naast dat het Coronavirus de gezondheid aantast, tast het ook de economie aan. Het Coronavirus zorgt onder andere voor een lagere economische groei, lagere belastinginkomsten en meer uitgaven. Voor een land als Nederland is dat op te vangen, aangezien er een […]

16 april • Door Esther Valkonet Tijd om te lezen Estimated reading time: 4 minuten

The math behind the coronavirus

At the moment we live in a big crisis, the corona crisis. Already more than one million people over the world are infected and more than 60,000 people died. A lot of countries are having big outbreaks and the health care is having capacity problems. This is also one the many articles which you probably have seen about the coronavirus. What distinguishes this article from the rest is that it will dive a lot deeper into the mathematical models which researchers use to forecast the spread of the coronavirus. It is of course extremely important […]

07 april • Door Stan Koobs Tijd om te lezen Estimated reading time: 6 minuten

Hoe een kleurenblinde jongen de allerbeste werd – Interview met Mats Valk

Het is een leuke party trick: het oplossen van een Rubik’s kubus, en dan het liefst zo snel mogelijk. Voor de 23-jarige Mats Valk, tweevoudig wereldrecordhouder en Europees kampioen speedcubing, is het echter wel meer dan dat. Wekelijks is hij urenlang bezig met het bijhouden en perfectioneren van zijn skills. In dit interview (dat wegens het Covid-19 virus via Skype plaatsvond) vertelt hij goedlachs over deze passie, het imago dat speedcubing als sport heeft en de link met econometrie.   Laten we beginnen bij het begin: waar is bij jou de fascinatie voor het Rubik’s […]

31 maart • Door Sjors Keet Tijd om te lezen Estimated reading time: 9 minuten

By Daniele Zedda • 18 February

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