A statistical look at the world.
Meet the 37th VESTING Board
On Monday the 5th of January, the 37th VESTING Board was announced. Each one of them has written a short introduction about themselves below:
Why Economists Disagree Even When Looking at the Same Data
Economists often appear in public debates, disagreeing on the same topic as if they are speaking two completely different languages. One study claims inflation is driven by excess demand, another points to supply shocks. Some economists argue that higher interest rates slow the economy, while others suggest they merely follow economic downturns rather than cause them. Perhaps the most puzzling is that these disagreements continue when economists analyse the same data. The numbers are identical, the time periods overlap, yet the conclusions still differ. How can experts trained in the same field reach such different answers from the same evidence?
Why the other line is always faster
We have all been there. You stand in the supermarket, scanning the checkout landscape like a grandmaster surveying a chessboard. You spot it: the short line. Three people, modest baskets, a cashier who looks caffeinated. You commit. Two minutes later, the woman in the “long” line next to you is already paying and leaving. Meanwhile, your cashier has called for a price check on an unscannable item, and the person in front of you is counting out pennies. At that point it no longer feels like bad luck, but like the world is against you. But as it turns out, your frustration isn't just a mood; it’s a fascinating intersection of psychology, social justice, and cold, hard probability.
Was Widespread COVID-19 Testing a Good Idea?
Imagine you test positive for a test that predicts that you have a rare disease with 99% accuracy. You would worry right? You might think this means you almost certainly have the disease, with only a 1% chance of not having the disease. This seems very intuitive, but is actually completely wrong. If the disease is rare, a positive result from this remarkably sensitive test can still mean that you are almost certainly healthy. This feels impossible at first. How can a test that almost never misses a true case be wrong most of the time when it gives a positive result?
Understanding Nash Equilibria and Their Role in Strategic Behavior
Many decisions depend not only on what we want but also on what we expect others to do. Game theory studies these strategic situations, and one of its most important concepts is the Nash equilibrium, a state where each person chooses their best strategy assuming everyone else does the same. A classic example is the Prisoner’s Dilemma, where two suspects can either cooperate by staying silent or betray each other. If both cooperate, they get a light sentence; if both betray, they receive a moderate sentence; and if one betrays while the other stays silent, the betrayer goes free while the silent one gets the harshest penalty. Even though cooperation is best collectively, both usually betray to avoid the worst outcome, creating a stable but suboptimal result. This illustrates how rational choices can lead to predictable patterns, a concept we observe in many areas, including markets, politics, and social media. To understand this better, we first need to explore exactly what a Nash equilibrium is.
How Twitter Trading Works
Have you ever watched a tweet go viral and wondered if someone is quietly making money from it? That idea is at the core of “Twitter trading”: turning tweets into data that guide trades.
Cliometrics: The science of quantifying (economic) history
We econometricians share the stage of ‘’metrics’’ with a lot of other disciplines. Think of biometrics, which deals with data concerning fingerprints, DNA, face recognition and more. Or even psychometrics, whose aim is to measure psychological features such as intelligence or other personality traits. A well-known personality test is the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator. But have you ever heard of cliometrics? This science is the application of ‘’metrics’’ to the past.
Econophysics from an Economist’s Perspective
What happens when Adam Smith meets Isaac Newton? Chaos, but with better equations. When the invisible hand meets the laws of motion, economics starts looking a lot like physics. In this crossover, an agent becomes a particle, energy becomes money, temperature becomes uncertainty, and trade becomes energy exchange. The result? Income distributions that behave like thermodynamic equilibria — and a new field people call econophysics.
Why do we count in tens and not twelves?
Have you ever wondered why we use only ten digits and the decimal system and not something else? The number twelve once was a big contender. Look at the number of eggs in a dozen, the hours on a clock, months in a year and even the number of courses in a year.
Michael Klaster: Leadership and Econometrics – An Unexpected Bridge
After 27 years working as an econometrician I have learned that models often reveal more about the assumptions of the builder than about reality itself. We simplify, abstract, adopt a linear approach and hope that the residuals don't betray us. Yet time and again we see that the real difference between success or failure often lies outside the model. And one factor keeps recurring: leadership.