De Econometrist neemt een statistische kijk op de wereld.
Risk has been one of the most beloved board games since its release more than sixty years ago. With this classic board game, a fun evening with your friends or family can soon turn into an hours-long war where alliances are forged, troops are lost and battles are won. This family game has brought a lot of joy as well as quarrels and has produced many victors over the years. But what exactly is the best way to conquer the world? Is there a way to ensure your victory? In this article I will […]
While almost the whole world is struggling to get a grip on COVID-19, New Zealand has been held up as an example by many of how to handle the virus outbreak. Due to closing their borders to non-citizens and enforcing a strict lockdown for six weeks, life in New Zealand was able to return to normal at the beginning of June, with most of the world looking on with envy. But with the number of infections rising up once again in most of Europe, we hear virtually nothing about them. So how have they […]
The number of transactions in the property market depends on many sectors of the economy. Fundamentals such as demographics, productivity, and income play a significant role in generating volatility in house prices. In general, transactions on the housing market are determined by how quickly houses are sold and at the same time how quickly appear on the market. How quickly houses come off in a sale the market depends on a process involving buyers and sellers. On the other hand, how quickly houses show up on the housing market depends on the decisions of homeowners […]
Imagine you get the opportunity to flip a coin for only 1 dollar : if it turns up heads, you win 50% and if it turns up tails you lose 40% of your initial bet. Of course we’re all familiar with calculating expected payoffs: since this bet has an expected payoff of 0.5*1.5 + 0.5*0.6=1.05, you should take it. Right? Well, it might be a little less obvious. Suppose you flip the coin another time. Your wealth will, depending on the flips, either be 2.25 (two heads), 0.9 (one heads, one tails), or 0.36 […]
The Lotka-Volterra model is mostly referred to as the predator-prey model. This model is used to describe lots of commonly encountered ecological processes. One of the more famous ones is the rabbit and the fox model. This is a cyclical relation between the amount of rabbits and foxes. More on this will be explained further on. In economics, we also encounter lots of cycles and that is why another application of this model could find a place in economics. Therefore, the Lotka-Volterra equations are potentially very useful in such an economic setting and may be […]
Running the US election takes many years, billions of dollars, a lot of self-efficacy and most importantly, 270 electoral votes. Last Thursday was the Election Day for the presidential elections of 2020. Joe Biden led the national polls since the start of the year and one day before the election he was still polling 52% ahead of Donald Trump. You might think it is obvious that the candidate with the most votes wins, but this is actually not the case… During five different presidential elections (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000 and 2016), the person who became […]
Donald Duck, the unfortunate duck that we all know and love, has had it. He angrily shouts at Scrooge McDuck: “every single day I’m brushing coins for you, and yet you barely pay me enough to buy food for my own nephews. I demand a raise!” Scrooge responds: “No way! A lazybones like you should be happy that I’m not firing you! But if you really want a shot at earning more money, you can have this magic wheel that I got from the prince of Farawayland as part of a trading deal. He told […]
Scratching noises, soft but certainly close and drawing closer. You wake up and listen to them getting louder. Right in front of your bedroom door, the noise stops. The door handle starts to move down and the door is opening. Startled you reach for the light on your nightstand and turn it on. Movement at the doorpost. A hand, black and rotten, as if the owner has been dead for years, pulls back from the doorpost, back into the hallway. You scream. You hear loud stumbling noises in the hallway and the next moment the […]
Data has become extremely valuable to many companies in the world. Huge data centres are being built to cope with the vast amount of it that is being transmitted every single second. Especially with the rise of AI and specifically machine learning, this information can be used to build models that can predict future outcomes with phenomenal accuracy. These techniques could also be very powerful when we want to predict stock markets. However, stock prices can be very volatile and investor sentiments can influence these prices as well, so how accurate are these machine learning […]
Are you reading this article using a VPN? If so, what made you decide to buy one? If not, did you ever consider getting one? Chances are quite small you have never heard of them, as everywhere you surf, advertisements flood you with the advantages of using a VPN. Many famous youtubers are getting sponsored by VPN companies to inform you about discount opportunities at the start of their videos. They all make claims about how you are unsafe on the internet and how using a VPN will solve these problems and wholly protect your privacy. […]
The whole world has been undergoing quite some big changes since the start of the year 2020, all due to the new disease COVID-19. The scientists are in a hurry to find either a preventative vaccine or a curing medicine. However, what if something as harmless as a sugar pill could cure the disease? Now, I’m not saying this would work in this situation, but this kind of treatment has worked for different situations. This mysterious idea is called the placebo effect. What is the placebo effect? The placebo effect is based on the idea […]
When you were still a little child, you were probably told that all babies were delivered by storks. Later, when you got older, you found out that this idea is total nonsense. However, imagine that you are still in doubt whether this idea is true, and to discover the truth, you want to use your statistical abilities. As it turns out, from a statistical point of view it seems that storks really do deliver babies. Or does it not? Robert Matthews In the year 2000, Robert Matthews, professor at Aston University, published an academic paper […]
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